Forbes recently published an in-depth look at the value of Waymo, in a piece entitled “Waymo Is A Trillion-Dollar Opportunity. Google Just Needs To Seize It.”

Forbes argues that Alphabet’s autonomous driving unit, Waymo, has the potential to become a trillion-dollar business—potentially matching or even surpassing Google’s core ad revenue business—if it can accelerate its rollout and scale effectively. While Waymo is expected to make around $300 million in ride revenue in 2025—a triple increase from 2024—this is still modest relative to the broader scale the company could reach. The ride revenue data is calculated using Obi data:

“Ride revenue for Mountain View, California-based Waymo could hit $300 million this year, or triple what Forbes estimated the unit saw in 2024, based on current ride figures and an estimated average fare of about $20 by Obi, an app that aggregates real-time ride-hail prices.”

Obi’s pricing data on Waymo comes from a recent report published by Obi entited “The Road Ahead: Pricing Insights On Waymo, Uber and Lyft” This was the first exclusive report on Waymo pricing data with comparisons to Uber and Lyft. The full report and data analysis can be accessed here.

The Forbes article continues to highlight several headwinds that Waymo must navigate to realize its potential. These include the high cost of autonomous hardware (such as lidar and sensor systems), regulatory and operational challenges, and the need to scale fleet deployment in multiple cities. Forbes stresses that while Waymo’s technology and unit-level economics are promising, expanding to new cities and achieving profitability at scale will require significant investment, regulatory alignment, and operational refinement.

Ultimately, Waymo as a growth lever for Alphabet that could reshape mobility and transportation economics globally—if Waymo can close the gap between its current pilot phase and full-scale operation. Forbes article suggests that Waymo’s success would depend not only on technological breakthroughs, but on executing a large-scale deployment plan, managing costs, and navigating new mobility ecosystems—thus turning “trillion-dollar opportunity” from speculation into reality.

The full Forbes article can be access here.